Who Will Decide Afghanistan's Future?

External forces are vying for an influence in Afghanistan’s political future as the war drags on for over eight years. There are plenty of opposition groups within Afghan borders that need to reach a settlement in order to create a representative and efficient government. While there are many sub-groups for the various tribes, two main ethnic groups sum up most of the population, Pashtuns and Tajiks.

Unfortunately, the decision may not be left entirely in Afghan hands. Certainly the U.S. has a vested interest in Afghanistan’s future in ensuring that the country does not again become a base for terrorism. To that end the U.S. has been reluctant to engage certain groups of the country, such as the Taliban. Two other countries that see their own self interest at stake in Afghanistan are Pakistan and Iran. Both of these bordering states have the ability to interfere in Afghanistan if they do not believe that their own interests in the region are protected. Pakistan desires a Pashtun leadership in Kabul that will be sympathetic toward the Pashtun population in Pakistan. It is important for Pakistan to have a close ally on its western border to offset its Indian foe to the east. The Pashtun population of both nations straddles the mountainous border region and is very strategic to the security of both countries. The Pashtun tribe is the tribe of the Taliban and this adds a unique dynamic to Pakistan’s hand in dealing with Afghanistan. Pakistan has had the most recent success in killing and detaining Taliban leaders. It is apparent that Pakistani authorities and ISI have a handle on the Taliban and can take down their leaders when they are put under enough U.S. pressure to do so. Pakistan has historically allowed the Taliban to operate fairly freely from their land; the current crackdown is only an attempt to save face with the West.

The alternative to a Pashtun leadership is a Tajik leadership. They are another powerful and strategic tribe that controls much of the northern areas. The Northern Alliance is a Tajik militia that was formed out of the Mujahedeen after the victory against the Soviets, much like the origin of the Taliban. Pakistan is very hesitant to encourage a Tajik leader in Kabul because of the tribe’s ties to India. However, it is Iran that has the most interest in seeing the Tajiks rise to power in Afghanistan. Tajiks speak Persian and descend from the same Persian ancestors as do modern day Iranians. Iran would benefit in significant economical and influential means by having an Afghan ally. Iran also has a notably large Tajik population; actually Iran holds the largest refugee population in the world, mostly Afghani Tajiks. Iran’s leadership has been seeking more international recognition and looking for outlets to spread their power beyond their borders. Afghanistan was once part of the Persian Empire, and Iran may have a moment of nostalgia if they can attain some of their former influence. Strong ties between Kabul and Tehran would be viewed as an American defeat at a time when broad international pressure is needed against Iran.

Perhaps it would be easier to overlook a couple states seeking influence in Afghanistan if one was not currently a nuclear power and the other on the verge of enriching uranium to weapons-grade. Additionally, both of these countries have a disturbing past with reference to terrorism and possible proliferation. Prior to 9/11 and since then the U.S. has worked with the Northern Alliance to dethrone the Taliban and take control of the majority of the country. The upper ranks of the interim government after the invasion, with the exception of President Karzai, are evidence of America’s favor toward the Tajiks. This has come at a cost as Pakistan undermined Afghan security by allowing the Taliban to escape across the border and regroup and rebuild. Scholars and U.S. administration officials have taken note that a stable Afghanistan relies heavily on a friendly Pakistan that will control their unruly side of the border. The three powerful nations of the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan have kept their dispute over Afghanistan’s future out the headlines because they each want to be perceived as allowing Afghanis to dictate their own future.