What Could Have Been Iran...

Polling booths throughout cities and villages of Iran were crowded on June 12 for a closely- contested presidential election. The weeks preceding the election were covered extensively by news agencies across the United States and Europe. Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was being challenged by a familiar name in Iranian politics, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi. Much of the West was hopeful for a regime change in favor of Mr. Mousavi. To the surprise of very few people, Ahmadinejad and the Iranian government announced his victory shortly after polls had closed. Simultaneously, Mousavi was announcing that he had captured the majority of the votes. Many streets of Tehran were in chaos over the next week as Mousavi supporters and Mousavi himself claimed that voting irregularities had falsely given Ahmadinejad another presidential term. The issue has since been taken up by the Guardian Council and they have confirmed some irregularities, but they will not be sufficient to overturn the decision.

With all that has recently taken place inside Iran, there is much dreaming about what the country would have looked like under Mousavi’s presidency. Mousavi is not a hard-line conservative like his rival, and advocates a more free society in Iran. He has stated that the police and security forces managing the streets would be pulled back and held within the confines of the law. Perhaps most importantly, he seemed to have the backing of the Iranian youth, an overwhelmingly high percentage of the population, and he appeared to have the unofficial support of the Western nations.

While the Iranian citizens that chose Mousavi as their candidate may have received what they wanted if he won, the watching West may have been disappointed with his policies. Despite his reformist and moderate stance, Mousavi would have continued to tow the line in the majority of Iranian politics and foreign relations. Among the reasons for this are Mousavi’s personal statements about high interest policies and the intricacies of the Iranian system.

The former Prime Minister held office from 1981 until 1989 when the constitution was amended to remove the post of Prime Minister. He has made it known that he fully supports the Islamic Republic and the ideals of the Revolution. His rise during the early years of the Republic took place at the side of Ayatollah Khomeini, as Mousavi was a loyal follower. Although the relationship between Mousavi and Ayatollah Khamenei is one of conflict, it is not likely that Mousavi would challenge the Ayatollah or The Guardian Council on the Islamic nature of the law and society. Mousavi stated in an interview with Al-Jazeera that he disagreed with the phrase, “wipe Israel off the face of the map.” Yet, he was appointed to the leadership council of Hizballah when they were created and he does not recognize Israel. With regard to the issue of uranium enrichment, Mousavi has made it clear that no changes would take place during his presidency, under any circumstances. Mousavi’s track record of relations with Western nations is also not very impressive. He voiced his support for the seizure of American’s at the embassy in Tehran in 1979. At the time, he referred to the hostage taking as “the finalization and culmination of Iran realizing its identity during the Revolution.” While serving as Prime Minister, Mousavi severed diplomatic ties with Great Britain due to a British author, Salman Rushdie, whose novel in 1988 earned him a death threat from Iran, which Mousavi supported.

Mir Hossein Mousavi’s presidency would not have brought forth any drastic changes like the days of the Revolution. The current system would have remained fully intact under Khamenei, perhaps stronger than under Ahmadinejad’s constant annoyance to the ruling clerics. Perhaps the only impact that could have been felt in the West would have been some aftershocks of a mildly more free Iranian society.