The Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend

This ancient proverb descends from the Arab World and it could be what transpires as the current history of the Middle East is unfolding from the Persian streets of Tehran to the Arab alleyways of Palestine. A vast majority of world citizens define the major conflict in the Middle East as The Arab/Israeli conflict. This is the conflict that has waged through times of relative quietness and pounding war since 1948. Hundreds of thousands have died in this conflict, leaders have risen and fallen, peace initiatives signed and later violated , land has been lost and regained.

However, this conflict did not very heavily precede 1948 and it deserves to be compared to another conflict that spreads across the Middle East. This first blood spilt by this conflict was in the 7th century. This is the conflict that began after the death of Muhammad and at the beginning of Islam’s conquest, the split between Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims. This is the conflict, the war, the hatred that has caused blood shed for 14 centuries in the Middle East. An exact count of the lives that have been claimed by this age-old conflict may be impossible to find, but it is certain that more have died in the battle between Sunni and Shia than between Israelis and Palestinians.

The relevance right now in considering these conflicts is to attempt to see where the current events taking place are going to lead the region. Both conflicts remain much as they have since they started long ago. There does not seem to be a prospect of peace on the horizon for either, but should we be so bold as to ask if a third conflict could force battling sides to find a middle ground in the interest of survival. Iran has an impeccable talent for changing not only the political landscape of their region of the world, but of the entire world. They are superior at grabbing the headlines as they did in 1979 and as they have done repeatedly in the last several years.

Once again, they may cause a quake in the Middle East, but one that is not expected or anticipated. With the brutal force that Iran has exerted over elements of its population and its growing nuclear ambitions and possible threat, the Arab States to its west must be plunging their greatest minds into deep debate about what their future holds. There is not much love between many Arab nations and their distant Iranian neighbors, there is also not much love between the Arab nations and their Israeli neighbors. However, if not to long from now they will be sitting between a nuclear Iranian foe and nuclear Israeli foe then they may want to make an alliance with an enemy of an enemy. The debate lies in the question of where will nations like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States turn. Syria and a Shia-led Iraq will be likely allies of a nuclear Iran, and Lebanon seems to often to be at the behest of Hizballah.

Egypt and Jordan do have peace agreements with Israel and normal relations with Iran, but there is little depth in those relationships and they are fairly superficial. An alliance where there is a shared interest in the well being of each nation is what is being looked at here. In all fairness, the Arab States would have many grievances and much animosity to deal with before investing itself in an alliance with the Jewish State. However, when held in comparison to the Islamic Shia Republic of Iran and its unpredictable leadership, Israel may come out as the lesser of two evils in Arab eyes. As far as conventional and nuclear military force, Israel heavily out weighs Iran in fire power and technology. It is hard to imagine all this playing out in the near future without considering the United State’s position, but we would do well to evaluate how the Arab States may look at this situation from a regional stand point with two armed and able neighbors.

Saudi Arabia and its Sunni royal family has always stood strongly against Israel, and has become the de facto leader of the Arab World because of its wealth that is used through out the Arab world and its position as the guardian of Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia has been consistently out spoken against Iran's nuclear program and has several times warned that the nuclear program is not for peaceful purposes. The Saudis view Iran’s moves as a desires to challenge them as a regional leader and there is the age old issue of the whether it’s called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. As Saudi Arabia evaluates Iran's intentions and just how far the Islamic Republic is willing to go to reach its aspirations of power and prestige, it may see the small Israeli nation as a nuclear ally against Iran. Saudis and the other Arab leaders may also take note that Israel has never used its nuclear capability, and Iran may seemed poised to use it as soon as possible with the past history of testing long range Shabab3 missiles. Israel may simply seem the saner partner in a nuclear conflict.

Battle lines between Sunni and Shia have lasted much longer than the battle lines of the West Bank and Gaza, and we have seen the brutality of this sectarian violence in recent events in Iraq. It seemed that while US military forces were still present in Iraq, the insurgents all but forgot fighting US troops and took up the ancient battle between Sunni and Shia. At the outbreak of the war the insurgents fought heavily against the coalition forces, but the hatred and history between religious sects in Iraq is deeply dividing and the animosity between them soon seemed to out weigh the animosity toward US military forces.

Obviously the issues of land and refugees would not be forgotten with regard to Israel and Palestine, but every time peace has been attempted it has failed. Perhaps the inability to build lasting peace is due to the attempt to solve all the issues before engaging in relations, maybe there needs to be some event that forces an alliance between the sides and allows the long-standing conflicts to be dealt with at a later date. This is probably more controversial and unlikely then many would care to consider, be but sometimes we need to think outside the box.